"Am I fast enough?" is often a question that gets asked, but is rarely the question that people mean. The real question most want to ask is: "will I embarrass myself?"… so let's deal with that.
No. You will not. And here are the numbers that show why.
BLUF: the average 70.3 finish is around 5 hours 51 for men and 6 hours 18 for women, and the field stretches from about 4:30 to 8:30. Almost everyone entering has the same worry you do.
What the finish times actually look like
Those averages come from age-group data across 70.3 racing, with finish times typically ranging from around 4 hours 30 for competitive age-groupers out to about 8 hours for first-timers.
Two things worth pulling out of that:
- The spread is enormous. A four-hour gap between the front and back of the field is normal.
- The middle of the pack is where nearly everyone is. It is a very ordinary place to be.
For a full distance day, the range widens again, with a 17-hour overall limit on most IRONMAN branded races and plenty of people using a good chunk of it.
How cut-offs really work
This is the part that causes the most anxiety, usually because people imagine one big deadline. In practice there are staged cut-offs through the day.
Typically you will see:
- A swim cut-off, measured from your own start time.
- A bike cut-off, usually expressed as total elapsed time from your start, so a slower swim eats into your bike allowance.
- An overall cut-off, and sometimes intermediate points on the bike or run course.
For example: the Outlaw publishes 2 hours 30 for swim and T1, 10 hours 40 elapsed by the end of the bike, and 17 hours overall. IRONMAN races publish their own equivalents, and they do vary, so always check the official race information for your event rather than assuming.
So, what that means is: the number that catches people out is rarely the overall limit. It is the bike cut-off, after a slow swim and a leisurely transition.
Work out your own number
Rather than wondering, put your actual numbers in and look at it properly.
Here's what to do:
- Open your race in our Event Strategy section. Every guide is built on the official course data for that event.
- Enter what you can do today. Your swim pace, a recent run time, and either your FTP or your average speed on a long ride. You do not need to know your FTP, an honest ride speed works.
- Read the predicted finish range, plus your margin against the bike cut-off. That margin is the number that answers your question.
- If you have raced before, use the previous-result option. It tunes the prediction to how you actually perform rather than how the model expects you to.
If you want to sanity-check the inputs first, the CSS Calculator gives you a realistic swim pace and predicted swim splits, and the FTP Calculator handles the bike side.
If the numbers are tight
That is useful information, not a verdict. It tells you exactly where to spend the next few months.
Usually the answer is the bike, because it is the longest leg and the one where fitness gains show up most obviously in finish time. Sometimes it is the swim, if the cut-off margin is being eaten before the day has really started.
That being said, if you have six months and a tight margin, you have a project, not a problem. If you have six weeks and a tight margin, pick a different race and do this one properly next year.
The thing the numbers do not show
Every race I have been at, the loudest cheers come late in the day. Not for the winner. For the people who have been out there for eight hours and are still going.
Nobody at that finish line is checking your time. They are watching someone do a hard thing they said they would do.
The key message here is: fast enough is a moving target, and it is almost never the real question. The real question is whether you are prepared enough, and that one you can control.
The bottom line
The averages sit around 5:51 and 6:18 for a 70.3, the field spreads across four hours, and cut-offs are generous enough for a well-prepared first-timer with a plan.
Put your numbers into a race guide, look at your cut-off margin honestly, then train the bit that needs it.
You don't have to have a great start, but you do have to start, to be great.
If you want a second opinion on whether your race is realistic, don't sit on it, let me know.